Now tied at 1-1, the 2025 NBA Finals shifts to Indiana as the Pacers play host to the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night in Game 3 of their best-of-seven series, and I've put together four expert player prop picks for this matchup.
Here are the four player props for your consideration, including an OVER at plus money (+126) on a defensive prop for Thunder All-Star Jalen Williams on June 11.
Jalen Williams OVER 1.5 Steals vs. Pacers (+126 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
After turning the basketball over 24 times in Game 1, 19 of which came through the first two quarters alone, Indiana was only a touch better in Game 2 with 15 turnovers. That puts the team at an average 20 through two games, which is 7.3 more than what it had produced through the three prior rounds. Oklahoma City has been racking up 12 steals per contest (24 in total) during this series, but only a pair have come from Williams.
He'll need two on Wednesday to an OVER on this prop, so he'd have to double his output in one night. In the seven road appearances Williams has made this postseason, he's tallied two or more steals four times and exactly three steals on three occasions. This is more of a gamble than anything considering he hasn't had two or more steals in a game the last four times he's taken on the Pacers, with the faith here stemming from the opposition's inability to protect the rock paired with the Thunder's stifling defense.
Chet Holmgren UNDER 8.5 Rebounds vs. Pacers (-130 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers continue to be awfully generous having Chet Holmgren's rebounding prop at 8.5, as it's a number he hasn't hit an OVER on since the second round against the Denver Nuggets. He finished with 11 boards in Game 7 versus the 2023 champions, but in seven appearances since, Holmgren is only averaging six rebounds and hasn't grabbed more than seven once. Isaiah Hartenstein has outrebounded him in each game of this series, as well, despite having been moved to the bench.
Holmgren's 15 points in Game 2 were certainly welcome after he only had six just days prior, yet his rebounding hasn't seen any noticeable spikes or dips to project him having nine or more on the road Wednesday. The 7-footer isn't playing a ton of minutes either, as five of his Oklahoma City teammates have seen the floor more than him thus far in the Finals.
Aaron Nesmith OVER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Thunder (+140 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sometimes it's best to simply ride the hot hand, and it doesn't get much hotter than Aaron Nesmith from behind the arc these days. He buried four triples on eight tries in Game 2 after connecting on 3-of-7 in the series opener, and that's against a Thunder defense which ranked first in opponent's 3-point percentage (34.2) during the 2024-25 campaign. That's a good sign for the 25-year-old wing, as he had gone UNDER 2.5 makes from 3-point range in all but Game 1 during the Eastern Conference finals against the New York Knicks.
Nesmith has only hit at least three triples in six of his 18 playoff games, equating to just a one-third of the time, and five of those six instances did come on the road. The Thunder have jumped out to massive leads in each of the first two games, and if that trend continues, Indiana will have to rely heavily on an outside attack to claw back on the scoreboard. That creates a huge window of opportunity for someone of Nesmith's talents to boost his 3-point numbers as it comes out of pure necessity for the Pacers to have a chance.
Pascal Siakam OVER 18.5 Points vs. Thunder (-128 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
There are currently nine players on Indiana contributing more than 9.5 points over the last two games, and Pascal Siakam leads the lot with 17 on a paltry 38.5-percent shooting. It's been a diverse, well-rounded scoring display that doesn't focus solely on one or two players, and the Thunder have done a pretty remarkable job isolating the two biggest threats in Siakam and Haliburton already.
Siakam did have 19 points in Game 1, which would barely come out to an OVER for Game 3 this week, and he did only have 15 points in Game 2. A pattern he's in which works to his benefit, at least, is that the Eastern Conference finals Most Valuable Player hasn't gone UNDER 18.5 points in consecutive games since the opening round against the No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Since he went UNDER on Sunday, that would suggest an OVER is likely in store for Game 3 should that trend continue.
