NFL Survivor Pool Picks 2025 Week 1: Fade Rookie QBs?

The NFL schedule has been released and people like me who are obsessed with survivor pools immediately had their eyes on Week 1's slate. Yes, it's super early and a lot can change between now and Week 1, but it's still fun to start looking at possible options.

Keep reading for an overview of Week 1 and at the bottom of this article, you'll find several tips for outlasting the competition in your survivor pool.

NFL Survivor Pool Week 1 Options

Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 1 based on moneylines from FanDuel converted with our Odds Calculator:

• Commanders -350 vs. Giants (77.78% implied probability) 
• Broncos -350 vs. Titans (77.78%)
• Eagles -330 vs. Cowboys (76.74%)
• Bengals -240 at Browns (70.59%)
• Cardinals -200 vs. Saints (66.67%)

The Titans (Cam Ward), Saints (Tyler Shough), and Browns (Dillon Gabriel) all could field rookie quarterbacks for Week 1 and that's reflected in the oddsmakers numbers above.

Last season in Week 1, those who faded rookie quarterbacks were rewarded after Jayden Daniels and the Commanders fell 37-20 to the Bucs and Bo Nix's Broncos lost outright to Seattle 26-20. To be fair, Caleb Williams and the Bears won 24-17 that week, but that was a game Chicago shouldn't have won. The Bears had a punt return for a TD and a 4th quarter interception for a touchdown while Williams only threw for 93 yards.

The Commanders have games against the Raiders and again the Giants later in the season so it might make sense to keep them in your pocket and not burn them Week 1. The same could be said for the Broncos who play the Jets, Giants, and Raiders twice. 

The Eagles are in an interesting spot vs. Dallas in the season opener, but Philadelphia lots a lot of pieces in the offseason and you have to wonder if the team needs some time to gel.

And then there's the Bengals....Sigh. Cincinnati ripped peoples hearts out last season with a loss to New England. And awful early performances is becoming a hallmark of coach Zac Taylor. Cincinnati is 1-10 in Weeks 1-2 under Taylor Taylor era and 0-5 in the last 5 despite being favorite in all of them.

Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool: The Pick

Broncos vs. Titans

ittedly, this is a way-too-early-and-I'm-reserving-the-right-to-change-this pick selection. 

Yes, as mentioned above, the Broncos have some good spots to use them later in the season but you might not get there if you step on a Week 1 landmine.

The Broncos have a great defense and their stadium is one of the toughest to play in thanks to a rowdy crowd and the high altitude. There aren't many tougher spots for a rookie quarterback and the Titans offensive line has some serious question marks.

Survive and advance.

Check out the table below where we will keep track of the teams as we pick them. We will mark picks we got wrong with an X, picks we got right with a ✔ and a pending pick with an O.

2025 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

General NFL Survivor Pool Strategy

Know Your Pool’s rules

It’s important to know the rules of your pool before you make any selections. Don’t be the person scrambling to see how your pool handles ties while the team you selected is in the middle of an overtime thriller.

Every pool is different — Chris from ing or whoever set up your pool might have a couple of weird rules thrown in that you need to know. Some pools allow buybacks after a loss (most don’t) and some go through the playoffs while others end after the regular season. Some survivor pools use point spreads, while most others just require a win to advance. Some larger pools consider holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas a separate week. Survivor pools require strategy, so don’t start strategizing until you fully understand your pool’s rules.

Size Matters

The size of your pool should impact your strategy. Small pools with just a few friends don’t typically last as long, so a more conservative approach is often best. But if you’re in a huge office pool or large online pool, you need to take more chances and be thinking long-term if you want to win it all.

Zig while they zag

You don’t want to be on the most popular team each week. If an upset of the team everyone is picking occurs, you want to be away from the carnage and root for a different team. Sure, that often means taking on a little more risk and pas a heavy favorite for a more moderate one, but this is the correct mindset to win your survivor pool. A lot of public survivor pool websites publish the selection percentages each week, so this can give you a rough idea of how people in your pool might be picking.

Conserve Good Teams

This is especially relevant when in a larger pool. It can be tempting to burn through a few of the best teams early in the season “just to survive,” but you will be looking at the list of teams available to you in Week 14 and sweating it out when you have to pick between the Bears and Titans to win a game. If you can make it through the first part of the year without burning some of the top teams, the payoff could be huge when you’ve got some big guns left in December.

Pick on bad teams

While you can’t select a team more than once, there’s nothing stopping you from picking on a bad team over and over. Of course, each team has a bye week and plays three division opponents twice, so you can’t fade the same team all 18 weeks, but picking average teams to beat really bad teams is often a great strategy. This season, teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers might be the teams to target. 

Create a road map, but be flexible

Before the season starts, look at the entire NFL schedule with the help of a grid, like the one found at Survivorgrid.com. A grid helps you stay ahead of things and map out a path to the finish line. Toying around with different paths will help you see which weeks are slim pickings and which teams have strong future value and might be worth saving for later.

While creating a path is useful, it’s important to be flexible when things like injuries or coaching changes happen. A team you thought would be terrible might get hot (like the Texans last season) and cause you to rethink your entire plan. Likewise, a team people expected to perform well might lose their starting QB in Week 1 (like the Jets last season) and force you to pull that team off your board.

Utilize multiple entries

If your pool allows multiple entries, that opens the door for even more strategies to consider. For instance, if you have two entries left during the final week, you could select two teams playing in the same game and essentially guarantee (unless there’s a tie) that one of your entries crosses the finish line. Toward the end of a pool, multiple entries can be thought of as chips at a poker table where the chip leader has an advantage because they have more entries and can take more risks without the fear of losing it all.

Identify landmines

There’s always a small handful of NFL games each season when a double-digit underdog wins and leaves survivor pool players speechless. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals' upset of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 is a prime example. If you can avoid these massive upsets, you’ll be in good shape. Make a list of games that you think others in your pool will be attracted to that you want to avoid because you see upset potential.

Beware of bad weather

A sloppy field can sometimes be the great equalizer between a good team and a bad team. For instance, in 2022, the San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and the Chicago Bears finished 4-13. However, when the teams met in Week 1, the Bears were victorious thanks in part to the sloppy field conditions at Soldier Field.

Think twice before selecting a big favorite in whacky weather conditions.