Monday's Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center.
Here are four expert player prop picks for those matchups, including an OVER on a rebounding prop for Knicks All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns at plus money (+118) on May 12.
Jaylen Brown UNDER 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Knicks (+100 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Wagering on any UNDER for a Celtics player after the team just pulverized the Knicks like a kidney stone at Madison Square Garden can appear to be risky, and the plus money for this Jaylen Brown PRA (points + rebounds + assists) prop insinuates that the likelihood of it hitting isn't very strong to begin with. That's why it's incredibly important to do your homework (which I'll happily do for you) to isolate numbers which have a greater probability of connecting than you and even oddsmakers had previously thought.
Brown is actually leading Boston in scoring in this series at 20.3 points while ranking fourth in rebounds (6.3) and third in assists (3.7). That adds up to a total average of 30.7, which narrowly falls UNDER the 31.5 benchmark set for Monday. Now that's obviously not how the PRA market functions, but it's a telling sign nonetheless, especially when you pair it with the fact that Brown has strung together consecutive UNDERs with six in his last eight looks at New York dating back to April 11, 2024.
Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 12.5 Rebounds vs. Celtics (+118 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
The only positive contribution from Towns throughout this series has been his rebounding, because his offense, defense (sort of), and nearly everything in between has made him somewhat (putting it lightly) of a liability. He's averaging 5.7 fewer points than he did during the regular season, is converting 14.7 percent of his 3-point attempts, and New York is scoring 10.1 more points per 100 possessions when Towns isn't on the floor. His rebounding has been consistently great, at least, and is perhaps the one number of his bettors can trust versus the Celtics.
Towns is contributing 15 rebounds per contest, which is nearly twice as many as any of his Knicks teammates, as Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson are averaging 7.7 boards apiece. His actual line is set at 11.5 with -138 value, but if you make an alternate wager and boost it to 12.5, you get far more bang for your buck. Towns has exceeded 12.5 rebounds in four-straight games, and has grabbed at least 15 in the last two meetings with Boston.
Julius Randle OVER 26.5 Points + Assists vs. Warriors (-122 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Usually what we do with these player props is make one bet for every team competing, but a massive turnoff for Golden State is head coach Steve Kerr trying to utiliize literally every player at his disposal to try and generate some semblance of on-court success with Stephen Curry out. That makes pinpointing specific props for monetary gain increasingly difficult, although Kerr's rotations weren't nearly as egregious in Game 3 as they were in Game 2. This explains why you're receiving two Timberwolves props here instead of the usual one, and they're safer than anything I would have rolled with on the Warriors' end anyway.
This Julius Randle combination prop should put you at ease, having quickly shifted the mindset that he can't be a standout playoff contributor after shooting 34.4 percent from the field across the first two berths of his career. He's currently averaging 22 points and 9.7 assists through these three games with the Warriors with a pair of double-doubles over his last two. Randle has also gone OVER 26.5 points and dimes in four of his last five appearances while finishing with no fewer than 35 total in his last two tries.
Rudy Gobert OVER 10.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors (+105 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
The days of projecting a Rudy Gobert double-double are officially over, having been let down in that market far too often after his 27-point, 24-rebound showing in Game 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers set the bar sky high. He hasn't scored in the double digits in three games since, although he has with his boards on two occasions against the Warriors. Even when he's not a focal point on offense, which to be fair is quite often, Gobert's size in this particular series means missed shots should fall right into his hands. Golden State's best rebounders so far have been Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski, and that says a lot.
All Gobert needs here is 11 rebounds to achieve an OVER, and he's accomplished that twice through three games versus the Warriors and in three of his last four postseason outings overall. He hasn't played more than 27 minutes in this series, yet The Stifle Tower continues to dominate on the glass by averaging 11 when no other player on either roster is bringing in ten or more with more playing time.
