Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have led the Indiana Pacers to the 2025 NBA Finals. Following their 125-108 Game 6 victory over the New York Knicks, Indiana makes their first trip to the championship series since Reggie Miller and company faced off against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000.
The Pacers find themselves as massive +500 underdogs heading into the NBA Finals. But, all is not lost. Indiana won't simply go quietly into the night. Led by the unique skillsets of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, this Pacers team has the chops to take this NBA Finals to OKC, and become the "David" to the Thunder's "Goliath".
Here are three reasons why the Indiana Pacers will win the 2025 NBA Championship:
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1. Indiana's Offense is An Historically Great Assist Factory
The Indiana Pacers are averaging an insane 28.1 assists per game this postseason.
Only 10 NBA teams all-time have averaged 28 assists or more a game in a playoff run with 10 or more wins: the '85 Lakers who won the title, '82 Lakers also won the title, '84 Lakers who went to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, '80 Lakers title, '86 Celtics title, 1986 Houston Rockets made the Finals, '19 Warriors fell to Toronto in the Finals, and the '87 Lakers won the championship, as did the 2017 Warriors. The final team on the list is this year's Pacers. The common denominator of those teams? A high-IQ, slick ing point guard, who rarely turns the ball over. Enter Haliburton, who just put together the most assists in a Conference Finals series (63) since Magic Johnson in 1991.
Players in NBA HISTORY to average at least 10 assists, multiple made threes & less than 2.0 turnovers per game in a single playoff series:
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) June 1, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton - 2025 vs. Knicks
That’s it. pic.twitter.com/qAWGm0N9hg
The Sacramento Kings draft pick is a throwback point guard, in the sense that he excels at creating easy scoring chances for his teammates. Haliburton's extraterrestrial basketball IQ has aided the Pacers in finding solutions to every problem so far. The two-time NBA all-star finds a way to break the conventions of basketball every time he steps on the court, and his mend-bending playmaking keeps defenders off balance. Haliburton often baits defenders into making the wrong move, before finding teammates for easy buckets. He's an intuitive er, capable of dissecting even the most stifling defensive puzzles. The constant pressure Haliburton puts on defenses allows his teammates to thrive.
But, the rest of the Pacers can also make plays, as Indiana's 2.21 assists to turnover ratio, and 20.3 assist ratio lead the postseason. Maybe this Indiana team is a little more rare offensively then we're giving them credit for.
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2. The Pacers Can Turn Every Game into A track Meet
Indiana best chance in this series is to turn every single game of the NBA Finals into a track meet and attempt to outscore the Thunder. Rick Carlisle's squad needs to tip their cap to Steve Nash and Mike D'Antoni, as they've essentially replicated the famous Phoenix Suns seven seconds-or-less offense.
The Pacers are never going to win a straight up series in the half-court against the bully ball defense of OKC. However, if they can transform every game into a transition based contest up and down the floor, as they did at times in the Eastern Conference Finals - Indiana has a shot.
In the 2025 regular season, Indiana averaged 17.5 fast break points per game. That has carried over to the postseason, where the Pacers are running on 18.1% of possessions, and scoring an NBA-leading 25.8 points per game in transition. They've outscored opponents by 8.5 points per game in transition, including a 46-18 total in the deciding Game 6 against the Knicks. Crucially, they're shooting a wild 64% from the field on the run, and drawing free throws on 16% of transition possessions, all which rank in the 100th(!) percentile of transition offense.
Moreover, the Pacers own the league's greatest defense in transition. Indiana allows the fewest points per game in transition (8.9) in the playoffs, while surrendering just 0.96 points per opponent possession on the run, and will need to press that advantage at every opportunity.
Indiana created easy bucket after bucket against the Knicks in transition, sometimes even getting easy uncontested dunks off a made New York basket. Now, OKC has far more depth and athleticism than the Knicks. However, few teams have attempted to go toe-to-toe with the Thunder offense. When they did, like Minnesota in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, those teams had success. Indiana must continue to lean on their transition offense in the NBA Finals and run at every opportunity.
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3. Indiana is Shooting the Lights Out
In 12 playoff wins, Indiana has shot 50% or better 10 times. Rick Carlisle's Pacers are shooting the lights out with their 57.6% effective field goal percentage, and 61.2% true-shooting percentage leading the playoff field.
If you hadn't noticed, the Pacers are making it rain from three. Indiana is knocking down 40.5% of three-point attempts - leading the postseason by a wide margin. On the flip side, Oklahoma City is shooting just 33.8% from beyond the arc. Indiana's long-range shooting is their greatest hope, as the Pacers must look to capitalize from beyond the arc whenever possible, and attempt to turn every game into a shootout. Plus, Rick Carlisle has done an outstanding job of scheming open looks, as his team have knocked down an insane 46.9% of corner three-point shots in 16 playoff games.
Rick Carlisle is laughably good. First possession, Knicks overload the empty side action to try to stop the quick Turner PnPop when they're running hedge/recover. Sheppard relocates to get away from Mitch who has to scramble out.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) May 24, 2025
Then the next possession, Carlisle runs same… pic.twitter.com/Sda4Q73SOp
On top of that, Indiana has also been the most effective mid-range shooting team in the postseason, knocking down an insane 48.7% of mid-range jumpers. Haliburton is a wizard at creating open looks for his teammates, while Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith among others continue to knock them down.
When Indiana throws the ball to a spot up shooter, they're scoring 1.15 points per possessions, and averaging 28.3 spot up points per game. To make a long story even longer, the Pacers are scoring on a wild 45% of spot up attempts, which ranks in the 93rd percentile in NBA history. Not bad.
Additionally, Indiana has gone 7-1 SU in clutch games (defined as the last five minutes of a contest within five points), while shooting 48% from the field and 42% from three. Thus, if Indiana's pace and shooting can keep festivities close heading into the final minutes, with Haliburton's clutch gene coming to the forefront - they have a great shot at out-executing the sometimes bogged down Thunder offense and pulling off the victory.
The Pacers must continue their outstanding shooting, especially from beyond the arc, in order to win the 2025 NBA Finals.
