3 Reasons Why Oklahoma City Thunder Will Win 2025 NBA Championship

The NBA Finals for the first time since 2012 after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves across five games in the Western Conference finals.

They're heavily favored to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy on the heels of a league-best 68-14 record during the 2024-25 regular season. The Thunder are currently listed at -770 at Sportsbook to emerge victorious in their best-of-seven series with the Indiana Pacers. 

Here are three reasons why Oklahoma City will end up being the seventh unique champion in as many years. 

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1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series

While not always true, typically the team in possession of the best player on either roster ends up winning more often than not. You can certainly make the argument that Luka Doncic was that player in last year's matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics, yet Boston took that series quite convincingly in five games. In the years prior, however, talent like Nikola Jokic (2023), Stephen Curry (2022), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021), and LeBron James (2020) were unquestionably the top dogs on the hardwood, evident by all of them going on to be named Finals Most Valuable Player.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was recently awarded 2025 Most Valuable Player for his contributions on a young Thunder squad which finished with a 16-game lead over the field in the much tougher West. He also led the league in scoring by averaging 32.7 points per game on 51.9/37.5/89.8 shooting splits, and became just the 14th player to ever score 30 or more points for a season three different times. Along with being voted in as an All-Star starter, a third-straight All-NBA First Team spot, and just recently a unanimous pick for West Finals MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander has put together one of greatest resumes for a single season in recent memory, and one that should soon be topped off with a championship and probable Finals MVP on his mantle. In fact, he'll be the first MVP winner to actually suit up in the Finals since Curry did so way back in 2015-16. 

With all due respect to the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson, Pascal Siakam, and Karl-Anthony Towns, Gilgeous-Alexander is a part of a very select group with a legitimate claim to being the very best basketball player on the planet that none of those names are included in. He's putting up 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals during Oklahoma City's ongoing 16-game playoff run, and he's doing so at a lower efficiency than what he demonstrated in 76 prior outings, so there's still wiggle room for his scoring numbers to improve. If there's another level that Gilgeous-Alexander can reach, even on the grand stage of the Finals, than the Thunder will be in even better shape than they're already in. 

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2. The OKC Thunder Have Been Historically Dominant 

It's one thing to win, but it's another entirely to do so in the fashion that Oklahoma City is. For starters, including the 68 victories ed during the season, the Thunder have won 80 total games heading into the Finals which has only been achieved 14 other times before. Should they go the distance and win 84 games, they'll the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (88), 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87), and 1996-97 Bulls (84) as the only teams to have reached that milestone.

Oklahoma City has already established a new record for the most wins by 30 points or more in a postseason with four, beating out the previous mark of three set by the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, 1996 Utah Jazz, and 1987 Los Angeles Lakers. Only the Jazz didn't go on to win the title that year, so history is at least leaning in the Thunder's favor that they can pull this off. There were eight occasions during the season when the team won by at least 30 points, as well, although all of those victories came against opposition that didn't qualify for the playoffs like the Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards, and Toronto Raptors. 

Every quality team Oklahoma City has battled thus far, however, has met a similar fate. The Memphis Grizzlies fell by 51 points in Game 1 at the Paycom Center in the opening round, the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets lost Games 2 and 7 by 43 and 32 points in the conference semifinals, respectively, and the Timberwolves just recently got destroyed by 30 points in the series clincher of the West Finals on May 28. All of those monster blowouts have aided the Thunder in ing a point differential of 12.5 points per game covering both the season and playoffs, only bettered by the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks at 12.6. The only team to have not lost to Oklahoma City by double digits was the Warriors. 

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3. The Indiana Pacers Are Great, But A Tier Below

As the saying goes, "there's levels to this." Referring back to the aforementioned moneyline for a Thunder-Pacers series, oddsmakers are heavily favoring OKC (-770) so much that should that number hold ahead of a Game 1, it would be the biggest discrepancy between two Finals opponents since the 2017 Warriors were -2000 favorites over the Cavaliers. 

This isn't meant to discredit the Pacers, because over the last 11 years, three teams (2021 Bucks, 2019 Raptors, and 2016 Cavaliers) have managed to capture the championship as a betting underdog. Oklahoma City knows its handled its business against them in the past, at least, having beaten the Pacers by 21 points at home on March 29 sans Chet Holmgren. 

Indiana has proven itself a worthy foe, especially after disposing of the No. 1-seeded Cavaliers in the second round. The best remedy to combat the 117.7 points per 100 possessions its currently producing in the playoffs, however, is a defense that's allowing only 104.7 points per 100 possessions. How do you stop the Pacers from continuing to convert 40.1-percent of their 3-point attempts (first)? You run defensive schemes that have been holding opponents to just 33.1 percent shooting from the perimeter. Every strength Indiana has at its disposal, the Thunder have a multitude of resources to prevent from being an issue.